I’m not sure if I’ve done one of these before but it is definitely needed this year, as I have an aggressive target that will be difficult to achieve without a plan. Hell, it will be difficult WITH a plan!
Currently I’d rate my chances at about 20% of making sub 14 hours but I’ll give it my best. I still can’t go up hills like normal people but my confidence has improved recently because I’ve been hitting a few pace goals and my hill sessions are getting better. The other big thing is that until last year I had never done sub 14 hours for 100km in any race but last year I did it twice and both times as part of a much longer run- at the Sri Chinmoy 24 hour and during Coast to Kosci. So now I know I can do it, I just have to slot in 5500m of vert as well…… um.
Because of course changes, the only year I have reliable data for is last year. In 2014 I had a LOT of problems- I forgot my Ventolin, forgot my sunglasses, missed my start wave, my shoes were too loose (lost 3-4 toenails) and I suffered from cramping for about 70km. So my 16:28 finish wasn’t too bad, but keep in mind when you read the following, that I did have a bad year. And if you read it and think ‘this guy has no chance, we’ll be waiting for him the following morning’ you might be right, but a girl’s gotta dream, right?
Here goes. Note, all of the time figures mentioned here are from the spreadsheet compiled by Ian Rowe from the Noosa Ultra and Triathletes (NUTR’s) linked here. Thanks Ian!
Start 6:30am (wave 3)
The first 4.5km is along the road and is intended to spread everyone out before we head into the bush. This year for the first time the rules say that your result will be based on gun time rather than net time. I’m not sure why this change has been made but it does mean that there will be a lot of insane people elbowing others aside at the start line. For a 14 hour finish the stats say I need to be at CP1 in 1:15. My time last year was 1:25 which means I need to be 1min/km faster, but I’m not going to stress about this because I do tend to pick up a bit when others get tired. The fastest here was 1:08 and slowest 1:24 so as long as I’m a bit faster than last year I’m still in with a chance.
Split time 1:15
Race time 1:15
time of day 7:45am
CP1 to CP2
Last year I was 2:33 over this section, but in 2013 (my fastest ever year) this was slightly further into the race and I did 2:41. This year I will need to do 2:08. The spread here is getting much more consistent, times of 2:07- 2:12 predominate.
Split time 2:08
Race time 3:24
time of day 9:54am
This will be a critical section for me as it includes Ironpot Ridge. Coach Andy DuBois emailed me last year and noted I could do ’20 minutes better’ in this section. This was before he was coaching me. I think he’s right!
The goal here is to get to the Ironpot turnaround in 34 minutes (3:58 race time) for a total time on the section of 2 hours flat. I’ve done 2:27 (2014) and 2:38 (2013), time to put my big girl pants on!
Split time 2:00
Race time 5:24
time of day 11:54am
This section is only 11km, but if you can’t run, you will suffer terribly time-wise. The stats say you need to do this section in 1:35, my best is 1:49 (both 2014 and 2013). Although this seems like a monumental task, I was actually able to go up Nellie’s Glen without stopping for the first time recently. If I can keep my pace up on the flat, not stop up the stairs and have a gentle jog to the CP I’ve got a good chance of getting this time.
Split time 1:35 + 6 minutes at CP3
Race time 7:05
time of day 1:35pm
Probably the toughest section of the race, it’s a brutal set of ascent/ descent which never seems to get anywhere. But I’ve been training stairs a lot this year and hope to bring back some of the time I lost last year to cramps. Because of course changes the only year I have stats for is last year when I did 3:52. The spreadsheet say I will need to do 3:16 this year. Gulp. But it IS possible. Sunset is 5:06pm on race day so you most likely will not have to use your head torch to get to Queen Vic hospital. Nice.
Split time 3:16 + 10 minutes at CP4
Race time 10:32
time of day 5:00pm
Last years time to get to Leura Forest was 2:50, this year I need to make that 2:22. I felt good at CP5 last year but as soon as I left the CP I was unable to run, even downhill. With a bit of luck I can do it this year.
From Leura Forest to finish is 4.7km and the target is 55 minutes. Last year was 1:13 and I was feeling very sorry for myself. A good part of that time is going up the Furber Stairs. Speaking to Tim Lyndon yesterday I found that he was able to go up these in less than 10 minutes, but it takes a normal person 15-25 minutes!
Goal- to Leura Forest
Split time 2:22 + 11 minutes at CP5
Race time 13:05
time of day 7:35pm
Split time 55 minutes
Race time 14:00
time of day 8:30pm
Now- the only way I can give myself some breathing space if running behind is to do the checkpoints quickly. I know I can do this- last year CP3 was 2:06, CP5 was under 4 minutes and CP4 was still under average at 9 minutes (even though I stopped to have 2 lots of noodles and couldn’t untangle my headlamp). If I simply stuck to the same times I would be 11 minutes in front of the average 14 hour runner. Now I just need to find another 80 minutes! Let me put it this way- I’m pretty sure I am on track for a PB finish. A half hour under my PB of 15:28 would not be surprising. Getting those extras to go under 14 hours is going to be the fight of my life, but let’s see if I can do it!